Jeff Arnold, the lead climate scientist at the US Army Corps of Engineers, spoke at UA on April 27, 2017, on "Decision Support for Uncertain Climate Futures: The Confidence Trap."
Dr. Arnold works on the technical and science-policy concerns of climate change for water resource applications. He co-directs the USACE National Climate Preparedness and Resilience programs and leads the agency’s integration of climate change mitigation with climate adaptation.
For more than 200 years, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has had primary responsibility for water resource operations on most major U.S. river systems. Managing the impacts of climate variability and change is a significant challenge; projections of specific, possible threats and impacts to regional scale hydrology are still uncertain enough that explicit guidance is needed on their interpretation and use. Arnold's talk described new approaches to helping decision makers understand uncertainties in managing real river systems, aiming to avoid communication issues about confidence while respecting uncertainties.
Arnold's visit was co-sponsored by the Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions and the Water Resources Research Center.